Risk Filter Framework for Index Options

A predictor is only half the system. The filter decides whether to act. Bands: 0.58 <= P <= 0.80 (below = low edge, above = likely overfit/leak). DTE > 1 (avoid expiry-day gamma). India VIX z < 2 (block extreme vol). max_pain_distance > 0.3% (avoid pinning). Plus position cap = 2% premium risk per trade. Worked example: Bank Nifty spot 52000, P(up)=0.64, VIX z -0.3, max_pain 0.2% -> band OK, VIX OK, but max_pain too close -> SIZE REDUCED, not blocked. This nuance separates a framework from a signal. No filter = no edge, no matter how good the model.